Problems of local self-government - the magazine
main page | all publications | about magazine | about institute | contacts

Gasoline and its additives (MTBE, ETBE and TAME)
in Europe, Russia and Ukraine

Vagif Mirzoyev, Candidate of Sciences (Azerbaijan),
Yevhen Pushchyk Ц Engineer (Ukraine)


The European gasoline market has quite changed over the past years, which is first of all connected with the structure of automobile transportation, i.e. УEuropeТs dieselizationФ, as over 60% of automobiles in Europe consume diesel. Another reason is dieselТs better ecological and economical indicators.

Thus, in 2009, consumption of gasoline in Europe decreased by 23.1 million tons (19.3% Ц see Table 1) as compared to the year 2003. Besides, consumption of diesel fuel in Europe is considerably increasing, having been 163 million tons in 2003 and increased up to 200.8 million tons (+18.8% of increment) in 2009. Thus, according to the annual report УJahresbericht. Mineralol-Zahlen2009Ф (Germany), consumption of diesel in EU countries constituted: 200.0 million tons in 2007, 203.2 million tons in 2008 and 200.8 million tons in 2009.

Table 1. Gasoline consumption by world countries (million tons per year)

є

Countries

2003

  2007

 2008

  2009

% 2009, by 2003

1

 EU,   including:

 119.1

 102.7

 98.8

 96.0

 Ц19.3%

2

- Germany

  25.9

  21.3

 20.6

 20.2

 Ц22.0%

3

- Great Britain

  20.0

  17.6

 16.2

 16.1

 Ц19.5%

4

- Italy

  15.8

  12.3

 12.3

 10.7

 Ц32.2%

5

- France

  12.1

    9.3

   8.9

   8.7

 Ц28.1%

6

USA

 385.7

 400.3

 387.1

385.9

 Ц0.05%

7

China

   42.2

   57.0

   60.0

  61.8

 +46.4%

Source:УJahresbericht 2009. Mineralol-Zahlen 2009Ф


Gasoline in EU countries is produced at 135 oil refining plants whose capacity is 852 million tons of oil per annum, which makes up approximately 20% of world oil refining (as of 01.01.2008). The content of European gasoline over the past years has included: catalytic cracking gasoline Ц 30%, catalytic reforming Ц 50%, products of conversion Ц 5%, products of isomerization Ц 8%, additives (ETBE, MTBE, TAME)* Ц 7%. According to the data provided by the УLyondellBasellФ company, European production of ethers in 2009 totaled: MTBE Ц 2.64 million tons, ETBE Ц 2.59 million tons, and TAME Ц 0.75 million tons. That is, European oil plants used over 6 million tons of oxygen-containing additives in gasoline production.

gasoline and its additives - fuel - ETBE, MTBE

Consumption of ethanol fuel in EU in 2009 constituted 4.278 billion liters (3.41 million tons), i.e. increased by 18.4% as compared 3.5 billion liters (2.78 million tons) in 2008. Production of ethanol fuel in EU countries totaled 3.701 billion liters (2.94 million tons) in 2009. Source: УEuropean Bioethanol Fuel AssociationФ.

Taking into consideration the fact that gasoline contains approximately 7% of oxygenating additives whose price is always higher than that of gasoline, it is very important to use the developed economic index of price ratio: additive Ц gasoline. Such ratio expressed as a factor coefficient reflects the correlation** between its constituents which is of practical value.

Such an index in North-Western Europe is called factor-coefficient which equals to the ratio of MTBE price divided by the price of gasoline 10 ppm (FOB NWE). The factor-coefficient by MTBE has fluctuated from 1.05 to 1.15 (see Table 2) over the past seven months, whereas in 2009 it made up 1.14 Ц 1.27. The mentioned coefficient is used by oil companies producing gasoline and by petrochemical companies producing MTBE; it is often used in analytic reports of European ratings PlattТs, as well as in global chemical production (www.icis.com).

Currently, in Europe and worldwide it is not practiced to take into account the factor-coefficient between ETBE and 10 ppm gasoline. Nonetheless, such coefficient would be quite topical and it is of practical value as relevant ministers of 27 EU participant-countries in Brussels arrived at Уpolitical agreementФ regarding European commissionТs proposal to increase the percentage of renewable energy sources in the overall structure of energy consumption in EU, the so-called У20-20-20Ф plan.   EU Executive authority proposed that the members of this regional organization should increase the percentage of renewable energy sources up to 20% by 2020, to reduce by 20% the harmful exhausts into the atmosphere to reach the indicators of the year 1990 and reduce overall energy expenses by 20%. The mentioned plan for EU countries stands for gradual reduction in usage of MTBE and transition to ETBE.  

Calculations show that the factor-coefficient ETBE Ц gasoline 10 ppm proposed by the authors has fluctuated between 1.29 and 1.46 (see Table 2) over the past seven months of 2010, whereas in 2009 it made up 1.49 Ц 1.97.  

The factor-coefficient can change depending on the price of ethanol fuel which as of August 2010 amounted to: $570-616\mt in USA- Chicago spot, $770-783\mt in Brazil, and $908-924\mt in Europe Ц NEW ARA T2.

Table 2. Price for gasoline 10 ppm, MTBE, ETBE at FO¬ North-West Europe ($\mt )

є

Date

10 ppm

ћ“¬≈

Factor-
coefficient

≈“¬≈

Factor-
coefficient

1

08.01.10

730,0

818,3

1,12

940,0

1,29

2

05.02.10

682,0

774,3

1,13

990,0

1,45

3

05.03.10

775,0

890,3

1,15

1046,0

1,35

4

05.05.10

802,0

845,0

1,05

1065,0

1,33

5

02.07.10

685,0

763,5

1,11

1003,0

1,46

6

06.08.10

742.0

801,5

1.07

1030.0

1.39


Russia has just recently ratified gasoline and diesel fuel quality standards which are getting closer to European requirements. They are reflected in the technical regulations УOn requirements to automobile and aviation gasoline, diesel and sea navigation fuel, jet engine fuel and furnace fuel oilФ.

The purpose of adopting the regulations in the part regarding gasoline and diesel fuel was to get as close as possible to the requirements set in Europe by the directives of European Parliament and Council 2003/17/≈S и 98/70/≈S.

In 2008, the demand for MTBE in Russian domestic market constituted 430000 tons, while by 2010 it will supposedly increase by 7-8% to constitute 480 Ц 500 thousand tons per annum (Russian production in 2006 totaled 695000 tons).

According to our calculations, production of MTBE in Russia in 2009 totaled approximately 800000 tons, while consumption of Russian production gasoline was approximately 500000 tons. Export of MTBE in 2009 totaled 300000 tons of which 75000 tons falls to UkraineТs share.

Taking into account the gasoline quality requirements proposed by the Russian Federation government in Russia, the authors hereby propose to introduce gasoline A-95 Ц MTBE into the factor-coefficient for the Russian market, because so far such a coefficient has not been used. The mentioned coefficient can be used in calculation of analytic companies, for forecasting gasoline and MTBE market development. Thus, over seven months of 2010, the MTBE factor-coefficient has fluctuated between 1.05 and 1.17 (see Table 3).

Table 3. Price for gasoline ј-95, MTBE and methanol in Russia ($\mt)
(factor-coefficient ћ“¬≈ Ц gasoline ј-95 over 7 months of 2010)

є

Date

Gasoline ј-95

 ћ“¬≈

Coefficient

Methanol

1

08.01.2010

      751.0

  881.0

     1.17

   300.0

2

05.03.2010

      788.0

  921.0

     1.17

   276.0

3

02.07.2010

      856.0

  897.0

     1.05

   270.0

4

06.08.2010

      905.0

  983.0

     1.09

   276.0

Source: www.nge.ru, www.himtrade.ru


The main importers of Russian ћ“¬≈ in 2008 are Finland, Ukraine, Holland (see the table 4). At the same time, itТs not important that all the volume of MTBE supplied to these countries (in this case except Ukraine) is consummated there. In most cases the transit route passes through these countries to the end-user countries. On the whole through Russia Ц 46.1% of the common production of ћ“¬≈ was exported (see the Table 4).

Table 4. The structure and export volume of Russian ћ“¬≈ in 2002-2008 years (tons)

Country of destination

2002 y.

2003 y.

2004 y.

2005 y.

2006 y.

2007 y.

2008 y.

Finland

112796

133143

80284

125947

95854

97275

172981

Holland

12746

1978

9446

9550

54617

100745

58436

Estonia

5015

11100

-

21272

47357

69681

-

Ukraine

25797

58753

91000

65742

41864

60063

83086

Lithuania

-

-

527

7658

22471

33495

44028

Romania

12620

9326

9178

1905

16123

7541

-

Kazakhstan

8205

3899

6595

3540

11065

6951

7206

Belarus

-

-

-

-

926

-

-

Nigeria

-

-

-

-

490

-

-

Azerbaijan

-

177

-

-

-

-

-

Hungary

-

3158

-

-

-

-

-

China

-

9368

9760

-

-

-

-

Kirghizia

345

-

-

52

-

-

59

Latvia

7128

5330

10922

-

-

4368

-

Norway

321

-

3197

-

-

-

-

Poland

13870

7516

1001

-

-

-

-

USA

-

-

-

3660

-

-

-

Tajikistan

174

226

119

-

-

-

-

Germany

-

-

-

-

-

12855

-

Totally tons:

119017

243974

222029

239326

290767

392974

365796

Source: www.newchemistry.ru


Recently Ukrainian fuel market is essentially changed. This year must be the last for the old-timed fuel. Starting from the New Year Ц 2011 y. Ц Ukraine could start using more quality and ecologically clean gasoline and diesel fuel oil for vehicles. Euro 4 standard, which became obligatory in Europe in 2005 y., produces two times less of pollutant emissions, especially  monoxide carbon (CO), than gasoline with euro 2 standard, which dominates in Ukraine. Furthermore starting from 2009 года the countries of EU already passed to a new stage Ц Euro5 standard and being prepared for Euro6. But it seems that passing from the current Euro2 standard to Euro4 could be postponed till 2013 year. As most part of Ukrainian fuel producers couldnТt make in time the preparation of the manufacture for this kind of passing and ask more time for modernization.

Ukrainian oil-refining plants produced 3.257 million tons gasoline in 2009. In 2009 gasoline consumption made Ц 4.24 million tons, ј-95 Ц 2.47 million tons, ј-92 Ц 1.37 million tons and ј 76\80 Ц 0.38 million tons. For the production of high-octane gasoline A-95 and A-92, Ukrainian producers in 2009 used approximately 200000 ton >ћ“¬≈, from which the import from Russia made nearly 75000 ton.

Unfortunately, itТs impossible to make the proper analysis of coefficient of gasoline A-95 and MTBE for Ukraine. ItТs correlated with this fact that there is no producers of MTBE additives in Ukraine, except oil-refining plant Lisichansk (100000 ton\year) and oil-refining plant Kremenchug (24000 ton\year), producing MTBE just only for their own needs of high-octane gasoline production. The market price of MTBE additives in Ukraine for the 1st of August 2010 made $ 1070 Ц $ 1090 per ton, taking into account that the wholesale price for 1 ton gasoline A-95 made $ 1115. As we can see, petrol in Ukraine is more expensive than MTBE additives, taking into consideration that the coefficient factor is calculated on the conditions of FOB NWE ARA.

An important economic indicator in determining the cost of additives (ETBE, MTBE) to gasoline is the cost of raw materials (see Table 5).

ETBE is ethyl-tret-butyl ether, containing 50% of ethanol fuel;

MTBE is methyl-tret-butyl ether, containing 33% of methanol;

TAME is tret-amil-methyl ether, containing 10% methanol.

Taking into account the percentage of alcohol (ethanol, methanol) in ETBE and MTBE additives (price as of 20.08.2010), it can be calculated that the price of ethanol T1 in the price of ETBE at NWE ARA “1 amounts to 38.7%, whereas the price of methanol T1 in the price of MTBE at NWE ARA “1 amounts to 14.6%. Comparably, the respective figure as of January 15 of 2010 was as follows: in ETBE the cost of ethanol T1 Ц 45 %; while in NTBE the cost of methanol T1 Ц 16%. As to the cost of isobutylene in the cost of ETBE and MTBE additives, it depends on different factors and is more difficult to define.

Taking into account the aforesaid, it can be concluded that the cost of ethanol in the cost of ETBE in Rotterdam (T1) can amount to 35 Ц 48 %, while the cost of methanol in the price of MTBE in Rotterdam (T1) can amount to 13 Ц 18%. As to the Russian market, the cost of methanol in MTBE as of August 6, 2010 made up 9.3%.

Table 5. Fuel prices FOB NWE ARA ($\mt)

Name

2.07.2010

6.08.2010

13.08.2010

20.08.2010

01.07.2009

1.

Brent   $\barr

 72.34

 81.61

 77.60

 75.30

  72.78

2.

Gasoline 10 ppm

 694.0

 742.0

 700.0

 685.0

  680.0

3.

MTBE

 763.0

 801.0

 758.0

 733.0

  828.0

4.

Methanol  T1

  311.0

 338.0

 326.0

 326.0

  221.0

5.

ETBE

 1003.0

 1003.0

 968.0

 943.0

 1060.0

6.

Ethanol    T1

 609.0

 783.0

 758.0

 730.0

  829.0

7.

Ethanol    T2

 750.0

 920.0

 899.0

 890.0

  792.0

Source: УJim Jordan & AssociatesФ


We consider that ETBE, MTBE Ц gasoline factor-coefficients can be used when calculating gasoline prices, as automobile gasoline are one of the most qualified and expensive energy carriers. These coefficients can also be used in analytical reports of PlattТs, ICIS ratings which is very topical for the contemporary oil products market, particularly for the European.

As to the opinion of the authors, itТs very important to develop mathematic model of forming of coefficient ETBE factor Ц petrol and MTBE petrol taking into account first of all the cost of spirit, used for the production of the mentioned additives.



*≈“¬≈ Ц ethyl tertiary butyl ether, ћ“¬≈ Ц methyl-tret-butyl-ether, “јћ≈ Ц Tret-amyl methyl ether (international symbol names);

**Correlation is the statistical interconnection of two or several random values (or values which can be considered so with a certain acceptable degree of accuracy). Meanwhile, changing of one of several of these values results in systematic changing of the other one or several values. Correlation coefficient is the mathematical measure of correlation of two random values.



Russian version - go





to the top

Using information, refer to the website www.samoupravlenie.ru
Respecting the views of the authors, its wording is not always shared!

Problems of LSG

Home | Publications | About us | Institute | Contacts

Ramblers Top100
–ейтинг@Mail.ru